It's not looking good for Georgia Democratic candidate for Congress Jon Ossoff right now. But plenty of returns have yet to come in.
Ironically, the Democratic candidate in South Carolina, Archie Parnell, did much better than expected.
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Kevin Koster commented
2017-06-22 04:08:17 -0400
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Ellen, I truly wish we could conceive of the notion of a Democratic House by January 2019, but it’s simply not going to happen. Silver is correct that due to the Right Wing gerrymandering, there really won’t be many seats that flip. It will move toward the Dems, but I honestly doubt that it will even be a dozen, particularly if the Dems only look at seats in easy states like California or New Jersey.
Frankly, the best strategy for the Dems is to continue to present a principled, resolved opposition, and to bring their case directly to the American people, particularly to the millions of Obama voters who refused to vote in 2016 and thus handed the outcome to the minority of voters who rabidly supported something like Trump.
The 2018 midterms will likely be the most expensive midterm election in history, and the Dems should not be scared of this. They should aggressively go after every single Republican seat, especially in the swing states, no matter how Red they appear. This means that there will be at least 50 hotly contested seats, if not more – and the Dems should be prepared to spend heavily in these districts. Because as we saw in Georgia, the Right Wing will heavily spend as well. The Right Wing is happily gloating that Dem funders put in 30 million dollars but they’re leaving out that the GOP threw in at least 24 million and likely more, given that high-end Right Wingers were heavily supporting Karen Handel to desperately try to hold the Dems off. So in 2018, the Dems will likely need to spend up to a billion dollars and they need to be prepared to do so. Because this means that the GOP will need to spend up to a billion dollars to keep those seats, and they won’t be able to keep all of them.
And while that fight is brewing in the House, the Dems can focus on the real battle – for the Senate, where they will need to hold their seats and add three more. Given the viciousness of the Pence White House and the inability of the Right Wing Congress to get a single thing accomplished, one would think multiple grassroots Dem candidates from multiple states could break through to get the Dems back to a 51 or 52 seat majority – enough to make sure that the Pence White House won’t be throwing any further judicial appointments to Far Right ideologues from Heritage Action’s infamous list.
The result of this election shouldn’t be surprising, but it should be heartening for the Dems. This is a heavily Red district where Tom Price easily won his seat in the double digits just 7 months ago. This week, that seat was heavily contested, even with the Dem candidate not even living in the district! This should not have been a contest – Handel should have easily won by the same double digits as Price. It’s quite telling that it took 24 million dollars and the most rabid Trump fans to barely get her the seat.
I think it’s a good idea for the Dems to do some soul searching at this point. They need to do that before the midterms, and it will lead to a stronger outcome for them – as well as help to indicate who the grassroots candidate will be that they’ll be pushing in 2020. And they’ll need to do the simple work over the next two years to gain seats in the state legislatures and local town councils to make sure that the 2020 Census can correct the mistakes of the one we had 7 years ago.
Frankly, the best strategy for the Dems is to continue to present a principled, resolved opposition, and to bring their case directly to the American people, particularly to the millions of Obama voters who refused to vote in 2016 and thus handed the outcome to the minority of voters who rabidly supported something like Trump.
The 2018 midterms will likely be the most expensive midterm election in history, and the Dems should not be scared of this. They should aggressively go after every single Republican seat, especially in the swing states, no matter how Red they appear. This means that there will be at least 50 hotly contested seats, if not more – and the Dems should be prepared to spend heavily in these districts. Because as we saw in Georgia, the Right Wing will heavily spend as well. The Right Wing is happily gloating that Dem funders put in 30 million dollars but they’re leaving out that the GOP threw in at least 24 million and likely more, given that high-end Right Wingers were heavily supporting Karen Handel to desperately try to hold the Dems off. So in 2018, the Dems will likely need to spend up to a billion dollars and they need to be prepared to do so. Because this means that the GOP will need to spend up to a billion dollars to keep those seats, and they won’t be able to keep all of them.
And while that fight is brewing in the House, the Dems can focus on the real battle – for the Senate, where they will need to hold their seats and add three more. Given the viciousness of the Pence White House and the inability of the Right Wing Congress to get a single thing accomplished, one would think multiple grassroots Dem candidates from multiple states could break through to get the Dems back to a 51 or 52 seat majority – enough to make sure that the Pence White House won’t be throwing any further judicial appointments to Far Right ideologues from Heritage Action’s infamous list.
The result of this election shouldn’t be surprising, but it should be heartening for the Dems. This is a heavily Red district where Tom Price easily won his seat in the double digits just 7 months ago. This week, that seat was heavily contested, even with the Dem candidate not even living in the district! This should not have been a contest – Handel should have easily won by the same double digits as Price. It’s quite telling that it took 24 million dollars and the most rabid Trump fans to barely get her the seat.
I think it’s a good idea for the Dems to do some soul searching at this point. They need to do that before the midterms, and it will lead to a stronger outcome for them – as well as help to indicate who the grassroots candidate will be that they’ll be pushing in 2020. And they’ll need to do the simple work over the next two years to gain seats in the state legislatures and local town councils to make sure that the 2020 Census can correct the mistakes of the one we had 7 years ago.
Ellen commented
2017-06-22 00:27:29 -0400
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FWIW, Nate Silver does not see the outcome as a bad omen for Democrats’ chance to take back the House:
“Democrats have gone 0-for-4 in these races. From an emotional standpoint, the outcomes have been disheartening for Democrats. From an analytical standpoint, however, they’ve ranged between ‘not bad’ and ‘pretty great’ for Democrats as compared with their results from the 2012, 2014 and 2016 elections — consistent with the sorts of results Democrats would expect if they were on track to compete for the House next year.
[…]
The historical constant is that midterm elections have usually yielded a backlash against the president’s party — and the results of the special elections so far suggest that Republicans’ risk is higher than average."
However, he goes on to question whether or not they actually will manage to do well enough to flip the House:
“How might this translate for Democrats next November, when all 435 seats are up for grabs? The results simultaneously suggest that an impressively wide array of Republican-held seats might be competitive next year — perhaps as many as 60 to 80 — and that Democrats are outright favorites in only a fraction of these, perhaps no more than a dozen. To some extent, this configuration is a result of Republican-led gerrymandering in 2010. Republicans drew a lot of districts where their members are safe under normal conditions, but not in the event of a massive midterm wave.
In order to win a net of 24 seats next year — enough to flip the House — Democrats may therefore need to target dozens of Republican-held seats and see where the chips fall."
“Democrats have gone 0-for-4 in these races. From an emotional standpoint, the outcomes have been disheartening for Democrats. From an analytical standpoint, however, they’ve ranged between ‘not bad’ and ‘pretty great’ for Democrats as compared with their results from the 2012, 2014 and 2016 elections — consistent with the sorts of results Democrats would expect if they were on track to compete for the House next year.
[…]
The historical constant is that midterm elections have usually yielded a backlash against the president’s party — and the results of the special elections so far suggest that Republicans’ risk is higher than average."
However, he goes on to question whether or not they actually will manage to do well enough to flip the House:
“How might this translate for Democrats next November, when all 435 seats are up for grabs? The results simultaneously suggest that an impressively wide array of Republican-held seats might be competitive next year — perhaps as many as 60 to 80 — and that Democrats are outright favorites in only a fraction of these, perhaps no more than a dozen. To some extent, this configuration is a result of Republican-led gerrymandering in 2010. Republicans drew a lot of districts where their members are safe under normal conditions, but not in the event of a massive midterm wave.
In order to win a net of 24 seats next year — enough to flip the House — Democrats may therefore need to target dozens of Republican-held seats and see where the chips fall."
John McKee commented
2017-06-21 18:42:56 -0400
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And now Fox News has called it for Handel*.
*Or ‘Handle’, as Trump would have it. What an ignorant prick the creature is, that he doesn’t even have the good manners to check the spelling of his own candidate’s name. So sorry for you, America.
*Or ‘Handle’, as Trump would have it. What an ignorant prick the creature is, that he doesn’t even have the good manners to check the spelling of his own candidate’s name. So sorry for you, America.
Kevin Koster commented
2017-06-21 13:38:54 -0400
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Eyes is correct that the GOP gerrymandering from 2010 is not going to allow the Dems to do anything but make a few smaller gains in the House next year. We’ve been discussing that frequently here, and I don’t think anyone watching this carefully has had any illusions about some fantasy scenario where Hard Right districts suddenly get flipped into liberal strongholds. But we should also acknowledge the larger message from these special elections over the past few months. Namely, that the Dems keep doing far better than would have been expected in these areas – an indication of the major dislike held for the Right and for the Pence White House by the rest of the country. The Trump base is extremely rabid, to be sure – but they are not a majority of this country.
It is important to note that the GOP was panicking over this seat all the way until Handel was able to hold on to win her seat. The Right Wing spent nearly 25 million dollars frantically trying to beat Ossof’s challenge back, and they did a good job in scaring GOP voters in Georgia enough to turn out and get her over the top. (I would argue that the Right Wing’s taunting yesterday about how the Dems spent 30 million here has an answer – does the GOP intend to spend over a billion dollars fighting to keep all these seats, given that the Dems are going to go for any seats that they can?)
I also note that the Right Wing spent the last month trying to tell everyone that this specific election didn’t matter at all in the greater scheme of things, and that we shouldn’t look on it as any indicator about next year. So why are those same pundits now jumping up and down doing their victory dances? Either the seat matters or it doesn’t. If we were to hold them to their statements from just yesterday morning, we would simply ask these guys how they can reconcile their contradictory presentations and their hypocrisy.
The real work for next year for the Dems is in the Senate, where it is crucial that they engage their voters enough to gain at least three seats. That won’t be a “wave election”, whatever people think that may be, but it will be enough to stop the unfortunate and childish conduct of the Right Wing in that body. Once the Dems have 51 votes there, it will at least mean that the Pence White House will no longer be able to appoint vicious Far Right ideologues to the Supreme Court or to the judiciary in general. And that’s more important than any of these other areas.
I would also advise against trying to make hay out of increasing seats in California or New Jersey – those are already overwhelmingly Blue states. The Dems need to increase their presence in places like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Just winning a couple more house seats in California will not change anything. If anything, winning a California seat will just be laughed at Pence and then ignored.
All that said, the consistent result from all these special elections remains that the GOP is running scared from an increasingly unpopular and unstable White House, and that more and more Dems are making their voices heard in civil opposition. Yes, the Right Wing is going to spend this whole year gloating and trying to kick everyone else in the teeth. And the proper response is to answer those attempts at bullying with a steady resolve. It’s clear that the Right Wing knows this – their actions have become increasingly frantic. Just witness Hannity’s near-complete unraveling on the air these days.
It is important to note that the GOP was panicking over this seat all the way until Handel was able to hold on to win her seat. The Right Wing spent nearly 25 million dollars frantically trying to beat Ossof’s challenge back, and they did a good job in scaring GOP voters in Georgia enough to turn out and get her over the top. (I would argue that the Right Wing’s taunting yesterday about how the Dems spent 30 million here has an answer – does the GOP intend to spend over a billion dollars fighting to keep all these seats, given that the Dems are going to go for any seats that they can?)
I also note that the Right Wing spent the last month trying to tell everyone that this specific election didn’t matter at all in the greater scheme of things, and that we shouldn’t look on it as any indicator about next year. So why are those same pundits now jumping up and down doing their victory dances? Either the seat matters or it doesn’t. If we were to hold them to their statements from just yesterday morning, we would simply ask these guys how they can reconcile their contradictory presentations and their hypocrisy.
The real work for next year for the Dems is in the Senate, where it is crucial that they engage their voters enough to gain at least three seats. That won’t be a “wave election”, whatever people think that may be, but it will be enough to stop the unfortunate and childish conduct of the Right Wing in that body. Once the Dems have 51 votes there, it will at least mean that the Pence White House will no longer be able to appoint vicious Far Right ideologues to the Supreme Court or to the judiciary in general. And that’s more important than any of these other areas.
I would also advise against trying to make hay out of increasing seats in California or New Jersey – those are already overwhelmingly Blue states. The Dems need to increase their presence in places like Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Just winning a couple more house seats in California will not change anything. If anything, winning a California seat will just be laughed at Pence and then ignored.
All that said, the consistent result from all these special elections remains that the GOP is running scared from an increasingly unpopular and unstable White House, and that more and more Dems are making their voices heard in civil opposition. Yes, the Right Wing is going to spend this whole year gloating and trying to kick everyone else in the teeth. And the proper response is to answer those attempts at bullying with a steady resolve. It’s clear that the Right Wing knows this – their actions have become increasingly frantic. Just witness Hannity’s near-complete unraveling on the air these days.
Eyes On Fox commented
2017-06-21 07:04:36 -0400
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I didn’t want to depress myself so I skipped following this election. When Ossof didn’t win enough votes to prevent a runoff I knew the handwriting was on the wall. Trump has greatly eroded non-rural, college educated professional support for the GOP but his base remains solid and far more rabid than any other conservative constituency. Or liberal one for that matter.
This will put a stake in the heart of any House flipping happy talk by the left. Given widespread gerrymandering I never saw how it was possible. Democrats should make gains but a takeover is a mountain to climb.
The reality is it’s too early for Trump’s uneducated base to see his populist Fox News inspired taking points won’t help them financially. The only question is how many years will the Fox News, talk radio lemmings give the GOP? They’ve been fed a steady diet of this bile for a decade or more until it’s a steadfast belief rivaling a religion.
Sadly, even financial frustrations may not be enough to kill Trumpster support. I’m hearing the msm narrative they’re the struggling rural and rust belt middle class may be inaccurate. There’s a cultural disconnect between rural voters and how they perceive urban voters. So social issues like Christian identity. white identity, anti-abortion, and gun rights may be enough no matter how much America declines elsewhere.
This will put a stake in the heart of any House flipping happy talk by the left. Given widespread gerrymandering I never saw how it was possible. Democrats should make gains but a takeover is a mountain to climb.
The reality is it’s too early for Trump’s uneducated base to see his populist Fox News inspired taking points won’t help them financially. The only question is how many years will the Fox News, talk radio lemmings give the GOP? They’ve been fed a steady diet of this bile for a decade or more until it’s a steadfast belief rivaling a religion.
Sadly, even financial frustrations may not be enough to kill Trumpster support. I’m hearing the msm narrative they’re the struggling rural and rust belt middle class may be inaccurate. There’s a cultural disconnect between rural voters and how they perceive urban voters. So social issues like Christian identity. white identity, anti-abortion, and gun rights may be enough no matter how much America declines elsewhere.
Kevin Koster commented
2017-06-20 22:32:10 -0400
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Get ready for nonstop gloating tonight on Fox News, to be followed by multiple victory laps tomorrow there and on AM Radio. They were extremely worried that Ossof would win here, hence the massive spend by the GOP in a district they should have no issues winning.
Ellen commented
2017-06-20 22:09:34 -0400
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CNN has called the election for Handel.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/georgia-south-carolina-special-elections/?ex_cid=538fb
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/georgia-south-carolina-special-elections/?ex_cid=538fb
Ellen commented
2017-06-20 21:50:30 -0400
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It’s probably over:
“I dug into the election day vote totals a bit more, and it appears that Handel is approaching the point beyond which mail-in ballots wouldn’t be able to erase Ossoff’s deficit. But we just won’t know until we see more election day votes from DeKalb County.”
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/georgia-south-carolina-special-elections/?lpup=19076007#livepress-update-19076007
“I dug into the election day vote totals a bit more, and it appears that Handel is approaching the point beyond which mail-in ballots wouldn’t be able to erase Ossoff’s deficit. But we just won’t know until we see more election day votes from DeKalb County.”
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/georgia-south-carolina-special-elections/?lpup=19076007#livepress-update-19076007
Ellen commented
2017-06-20 21:44:36 -0400
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Ack, from FiveThirtyEight.com:
As we wait for the vaunted mail vote, Handel has a lead of more than 6 points. That’s a large lead to overcome.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/georgia-south-carolina-special-elections/?ex_cid=538fb
As we wait for the vaunted mail vote, Handel has a lead of more than 6 points. That’s a large lead to overcome.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/georgia-south-carolina-special-elections/?ex_cid=538fb